Document 2305
 DOCN  M94A2305
 TI    Dilemma between prevention of epidemic of AIDS and fall in population by
       condom use.
 DT    9412
 AU    Sasaki N; Naito M; Kambara T; Nippon Dental Univ., Tokyo, Japan.
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):334 (abstract no. PC0270). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370270
 AB    OBJECTIVE: Condom can prevent the epidemic of AIDS, however, if making
       errors in directions, this accelerates the fall in population. Can we
       solve this condom dilemma? Namely, by using condom suitably, can we
       obtain the situation in which epidemic of AIDS is prevented and also
       population is rised? We show this is possible in sub-SAHARAN Africa.
       MODEL: Population is devided in several types according to difference in
       sex, age, sexual activity and so on. Further, population of each type is
       devided in three groups: noninfected and infected with HIV, patient of
       AIDS. Transmission probability of HIV is varied according to sexual
       activity and existence of STD. By solving the simultaneous differential
       equations, we can predict the demographic impact of AIDS. RESULTS: By
       using condom suitably, it is possible that the epidemic of AIDS is
       prevented drastically and the population increases gradually in
       sub-SAHARAN Africa. The optimum direction of condom use is obtained.
       DISCUSSIONS: Our mathematical model can predict the demographic impact
       of AIDS and the effect of condom in every countries.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*PREVENTION &
       CONTROL/TRANSMISSION  Africa South of the Sahara/EPIDEMIOLOGY  *Condoms
       Disease Outbreaks/*PREVENTION & CONTROL  Human  Models, Statistical
       *Population Control  MEETING ABSTRACT

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).